According to the latest projections from IATA, global production of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is expected to reach approximately 1.9 million tons by 2025. A figure on the rise, but far from the trajectory needed to meet the aviation sector’s “net zero” goals. The association highlights a paradox: regulations are tightening and mandates are multiplying, but the supply of SAF is progressing much more slowly than the obligations imposed on companies.

In short, the bill is rising faster than the available volumes. The implementation of SAF quotas in several regions of the world increases the cost of fuel without currently offering the industrial visibility that would allow producers to invest massively in new capacities. Result: the price differential between fossil kerosene and sustainable fuel remains very high, and companies, both cargo and passenger, must absorb these additional costs in a context of intense competitive pressure.

For the logistics ecosystem, the stakes are high. Air freight is already under fire for its carbon footprint, even tho it plays a central role for time-sensitive value chains (cross-border e-commerce, high-tech, healthcare, urgent parts). If SAF remains scarce and expensive, the risk is twofold: a lasting increase in “fuel & green” surcharges for shippers and a temptation to shift certain flows to maritime or rail, to the detriment of responsiveness.

IATA is therefore calling for a change in approach: instead of piling on constraints, it is about securing investment support mechanisms (public guaranties, co-financing, long-term contracts) to develop a true global SAF industry. For major shippers, the time has come to look beyond the mere additional cost: participation in “book & claim” programs, pre-purchase of green volumes, integration of CO₂ targets into logistics tenders…

The message to the cargo community is clear: decarbonization will not only take place in warehouses or trucks, but also – and above all – in the way we share the risk and financing of tomorrow’s fuel.

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