The year 2026 is shaping up to be a turning point for air freight: overall capacity is expected to grow faster than demand, and a major portion of this growth will be concentrated in the Gulf. According to Aevean’s analysis, the industry continues to comment on the order books, but the key variable remains the reality of deliveries: how many aircraft actually come off the production lines and enter service.

The contrast is stark between wide-body and narrow-body aircraft. Deliveries of passenger widebodies have sharply declined compared to pre-crisis levels, while narrowbodies have accelerated—an energy beneficial to the passenger market, but which does not mechanically recreate long-haul cargo capacity. In the immediate term, most of the additional ton-kilometers will still come from dedicated cargo planes, whose deliveries would remain at a level comparable to last year.

The geographical dimension is the most striking: Aevean estimates that by adding the expected deliveries in 2026, nearly half of the new widebody capacity will go to operators in the Middle East. This shift is already evident in the flows: capacity between Asia and the Gulf is increasing significantly, while some routes to North America are evolving less favorably. The challenge would not only be to “fill” the main routes, but to balance the returns, as adding capacity on strong routes mechanically creates pressure on the backhaul legs.

In short: 2026 might depend less on a surge in demand and more on where and how capacity is added — and, according to these projections, the center of gravity would shift to the Gulf.

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