Global air cargo capacity is showing early signs of recovery—but the market remains far from stable.

Following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, international widebody capacity dropped sharply. While the decline has eased from 20% in the immediate aftermath to 11% below pre-Chinese New Year levels, the sector continues to operate under significant pressure.

The disruption is largely driven by reduced operations from Middle Eastern carriers, which play a central role in global cargo flows. Airlines such as Qatar Airways and Emirates—two of the world’s largest cargo operators—have scaled back services, impacting key trade corridors.

Asia-Europe routes have been among the hardest hit, with capacity reductions of up to 39% on certain lanes. In response, carriers are rapidly adjusting their networks, increasing direct flights between Asia and Europe while also boosting transpacific capacity.

The supply shock is pushing freight rates higher. Prices from Hong Kong to Europe have surged above $5.15 per kilogram—an increase of nearly 30%—while rates from India to the US and Europe have jumped by as much as 60% to 80%.

These shifts highlight a broader realignment of global air cargo flows, as the industry adapts to a new geopolitical reality.

For now, recovery remains fragile—and heavily dependent on how the conflict evolves in the weeks ahead.

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