Air cargo pricing out of Asia is finally showing some lift, but the traditional fourth-quarter surge remains strangely quiet. Forwarders report slightly higher spot rates from China into both Europe and North America, yet no one is calling it a real peak season. Not this year.

Demand is improving, but only in pockets. Instead of a broad wave of volume, airlines are seeing short bursts of bookings, driven mostly by electronics, fast-fashion launches, and last-minute e-commerce pushes. That leaves network planners adjusting capacity week by week, rather than locking in large commitments months in advance.

“Everything comes late and stays uncertain,” said one Shanghai-based freight manager. “One day the space looks wide open, the next day you’re fighting for a block of pallets. There’s no rhythm.”

Forwarders describe a market where caution dictates every move. Companies hesitant to overbook capacity are instead combining small blocks of allotment with selective spot buys, especially when cargo is time-sensitive or high-value. Charter requests remain limited, signaling that shippers are still mindful of costs despite improving sales signals.

The airlines, for their part, are holding back additional aircraft deployments. Bellyhold capacity is stable but not growing fast enough to flood the market, while freighter operators continue to tweak schedules based on short-term profitability rather than long-term commitments.

One Hong Kong revenue analyst summed it up: “Rates are climbing, yes, but they’re climbing carefully. Nobody wants to get burned by adding too much capacity again.”

The result is a fragile equilibrium — slightly tighter space, slightly higher rates, but no sign that the traditional pre-holiday spike will return to its old form. Retailers remain conservative with inventory after two unpredictable years, pushing logistics decisions ever closer to the final consumer demand signal.

For now, the air cargo industry is moving forward in small steps. A recovery, perhaps — just not the kind anyone used to expect from the busiest season of the year.

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