LONDON — July 4, 2025
U.S. road freight volumes, tracked by the Cass Freight Index, dropped 4% year-over-year in May, marking the 28th consecutive month of decline—a stark disappointment as carriers had hoped for a post-tariff rebound.

“We expected 2025 to be the turnaround year. It hasn’t materialized,” explained Dean Croke, principal analyst at DAT Freight & Analytics.

Key Drivers

• Stock build-up earlier this year has left warehouses full and trucking demand flat.

• Manufacturing shrank to 48.5 PMI, indicating sustained contraction.

• Freight rates are collapsing—contract rates down to $2.36/mile and spot market off by 9% year-to-date.

• Class 8 truck orders plunged 45% compared to last year, signaling operators’ hesitancy to invest.

Wider Implications

• Slower trucking growth could impair last‑mile delivery capabilities, especially in e-commerce.

• Weak freight demand hints at broader economic fragility in North America, potentially depressing job markets.

• Shippers are exploring alternative modalities such as rail, barge, and cross-border multimodal options to cut costs.

“This prolonged slowdown forces carriers to rethink their entire fleet and pricing strategies,” Croke added.

Carriers and shippers now face uncertainty leading into the summer peak and back-to-school season, with little indication of a freight rebound on the horizon.

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