By Maria Kalamatas — August 29, 2025

HONG KONG — August 29, 2025. Freight forwarders opened their inboxes this week to a wave of notices with familiar wording: “capacity adjustment,” “schedule revision,” “sailing withdrawn.” As China’s Golden Week approaches, container carriers are preparing to pull departures with little or no warning, leaving shippers bracing for volatile rates and shrinking capacity on both Asia–Europe and Transpacific lanes.

On the quayside, the mood is resigned. When Chinese factories slow production, carriers trim sailings to keep spot rates afloat. The twist this year, operators say, is the scale and speed of potential cuts. A Rotterdam-based charterer put it bluntly: “We can lose an entire voyage between two schedule updates.”

What this means for shippers

For exporters and importers, the immediate impact is twofold:

• Fewer slots available at the desired departure time.

• Price swings, as capacity reductions ripple through the market.

Analysts are already advising customers to spread bookings, diversify ports of loading and discharge, and prepare rail or air contingencies for cargo that cannot afford delays. Market updates suggest that “last-minute cancellations” may intensify well into mid-October.

Why it’s happening

Golden Week has always been a seasonal disruptor: factory slowdowns, uneven volumes, compressed rotations. Carriers prefer to withdraw vessels rather than sail half-empty — a strategy that supports freight rates but leaves supply chains scrambling. Industry bulletins released this morning reinforced the message: shippers should expect surprises and roller-coaster pricing over the next six weeks.

The ripple effect

If blank sailings multiply, the knock-on effects will spread inland. European terminals may face container pileups, while repositioning shortages could choke rail and trucking flows. Logistics managers are already urged to lock in critical delivery windows now — even at a premium — rather than gamble on uncertain departures.

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