There is a strange atmosphere in the container at the moment. There is no talk of collapse, but no one is really talking about recovery either. Volumes show some signs of return, very timidly. However, several industry leaders recognize that the transition to 2026 is likely to resemble a zone of turbulence rather than a takeoff.

Companies are pulling all the levers to maintain an appearance of control: cross-cancellations, service reshaping, hasty repositioning. Behind the scenes, there is an admission that this is a patch on a tire that is still slowly deflating. The problem is not just hesitant demand. It comes mostly from the fact that the fleet is growing faster than the market. Orders for new container ships placed during the boom years are now arriving. Too late for the boom, too early for a real recovery.

Several analysts talk of a market that is moving forward with a tight smile. Heavily indebted operators or those too reliant on long and volatile routes know they have little room for maneuver if rates stay low. A single missed quarter can send a strategy in a hard-to-reverse direction.

On the side of shippers and freight forwarders, the situation is paradoxical. You can get aggressive prices on some corridors, but on the condition that you accept a large dose of uncertainty: schedule changes, postponements, rotation changes, and sometimes, the unpleasant surprise of not boarding on the scheduled date. It’s a market that gives with one hand and takes back with the other.

Many logisticians are starting to review their contracts and their way of negotiating. Less “spot” at any cost, more flexibility, commitment clauses, discussions about service rather than just the tariff line. No one wants to relive the chaos of 2021-2022, but no one can rely on solid forecasts to say what 2026 will look like.

For now, the container ship is sailing, but with an eye on the weather. And no one really trusts the forecasts.

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