Airfreight rates could surge sharply as the Middle East crisis grounds flights and disrupts networks, according to consultant and data provider Xeneta, which is urging shippers on affected trade lanes to postpone long-term contract negotiations until conditions stabilize.

Xeneta chief airfreight officer Niall van de Wouw estimates global capacity is down by around 16–18% because carriers have been forced to halt operations and cancel flights amid the outbreak of war. However, he stressed the impact varies dramatically by market.

“The key example is India,” van de Wouw said, noting that outbound capacity is heavily dominated by Qatar Airways, Emirates and Etihad—carriers that are no longer able to serve that market. As a result, he said a 16–18% global figure can translate into low single-digit impacts in some regions, but 50–60–70% capacity shocks in others.

He added that even lanes not directly routing through the Middle East could see price spikes as remaining carriers seek to optimize returns. For example, India services transiting via Istanbul could become more expensive because of wider network effects.

Van de Wouw compared the risk to the early pandemic period when grounded flights caused rates to double, triple or even quadruple in certain markets. He warned the same could occur again if the crisis drags on, especially given that Qatar and Emirates—ranked among the world’s top airfreight carriers—have been severely disrupted.

Cargo currently on the ground with an airline in the Middle East may be stuck, he said, though forwarders that already hold the goods might find alternate routes. Cargo in Asia could face delays, and charter operations are expected to increase—though landing rights and operational permissions may constrain options.

Market tightness was already high before the conflict. Van de Wouw said load factors from Asia to Europe were around 80%, which Xeneta considers the tipping point between a buyer’s and seller’s market. Remove even 10% of capacity, and the market can quickly flip into a capacity run. Charters are likely being discussed now, but at materially higher costs than pre-war levels.

For shippers currently negotiating annual deals, Xeneta’s advice is blunt: postpone negotiations on lanes directly affected by the conflict. A rate agreed today could prove far too expensive if the situation eases quickly—or far too cheap if disruption persists—making the contract unworkable in practice. “Stay close to your freight forwarders, live with the uncertainty,” he said, and re-open long-term pricing once there is clearer visibility.

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