It was supposed to be a fuel of the past. For years, analysts predicted that fuel oil would quietly disappear from the heart of global trade. But the market has taken a very different turn in 2025.

Because of the security crisis in the Red Sea, hundreds of vessels are now sailing the long way around Africa. Each deviation via the Cape of Good Hope adds 10 to 14 extra days to a round trip between Asia and Europe. More days at sea mean more bunkers burned.

On top of that, the so-called shadow fleet—older tankers operating outside mainstream insurers—keeps expanding. These ships mostly run on heavy fuel. They are carrying sanctioned oil, and in doing so they are pushing up demand for a product that was meant to fade away.

The numbers tell the story. In the U.S. Gulf Coast, imports of fuel oil just climbed to their highest level in more than two years. Refiners are pulling in heavy barrels to keep their units balanced. Traders say inventories remain well below pre-war levels, which explains why prices have held firm even when crude prices softened.

For shipowners and charterers, this comeback is not academic. Bunker bills are rising. Rates for HSFO and VLSFO in key hubs like Singapore, Rotterdam and Fujairah have turned noticeably firmer. Forwarders are already warning clients to expect adjustments to bunker surcharges on contracts in the coming weeks.

Of course, the long-term trend still points to cleaner fuels. LNG vessels are multiplying, and projects with methanol and ammonia are gaining ground. But in the short run, the reality at sea is simple: ships are sailing longer, older tonnage is burning more, and fuel oil is once again at the center of the story.

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