The Asia-United States market starts 2026 with a signal that many were waiting for: the return of a readable seasonality. According to the latest indicators published by Xeneta, spot rates have reportedly rebounded significantly on the transpacific, driven by the anticipation of shipments before the closures related to the Lunar New Year. This increase, deemed “healthy” by several analysts, comes after a year marked by repeated disruptions on maritime routes and commercial uncertainties.

In detail, the spot levels observed at the beginning of January show a notable differential between the West and East American coasts, while the proposed capacity evolves in a contrasting manner depending on the facades. Some players, however, insist on a key point: even if the supply seems to slightly increase in the short term, the “planned” capacity on direct Far East–North America services would remain lower than last year, which could support prices if demand accelerates.

In parallel, volume statistics indicate flows that are still being reshaped: decline of Chinese shipments to the United States, rise of Southeast Asia, and increasing trade-offs made by shippers in response to risks and costs. The message for logisticians is clear: monitor spot variations, but compare them to long-term trends before locking in contracts.

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