The tanker market is ending the year on impressive income levels: VLCCs are operating on six-figure daily earnings, Suezmaxes are maintaining high levels, and Aframaxes are closely following. For shipowners, the recent period resembles a “peak cycle” sequence. Yet, behind these flattering figures, a period of turbulence is emerging for 2026, largely fueled by geopolitics and political decisions.

The tipping point mentioned concerns the possible evolution of sanctions and rules governing energy flows. In a market where each regulatory constraint can redraw routes, available capacity, and risk premiums, the effect on tankers can be brutal: detours, fleet segmentation, increased complexity of controls, compliance costs… and heightened volatility.

In other words, even tho demand and spot rates have recently supported profitability, the sector remains exposed to “governance shocks”: decisions by groups of states, new restrictions, strengthened monitoring mechanisms, and arbitrations on sensitive routes. For operators, the challenge for 2026 will be to convert the end-of-year euphoria into strategy: commercial security, hedging, risk management, and operational flexibility.

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